Two Georgia lawmakers have proposed a bill to allow people to use a part of their 401K in order to help pay their mortgage, according to a recent article in the San Francisco Chronicle. This would be a withdrawal from a 401K retirement savings without penalty.
Currently, there is a 10% penalty for withdrawing from a 401K prematurely. In addition, that money would be taxed as any withdrawn early is considered income. This bill would allow homeowners to avoid these fees.
Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Georgia) and Rep. Tom Graves (R-Georgia) have introduced this bill, called the Hardship Outlays to protect Mortgagee Equity (HOME) Act, in hopes that people who have saved for retirement can use that money to avoid foreclosure.
The bill would allow withdrawal of up to $50,000 or half of the 401K, whichever is smaller. The income tax would still apply, but there would be no 10% penalty. What do you think about this idea, and would you withdraw from retirement savings to help pay your mortgage if it was passed?
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
This Week’s Market Commentary
This week brings us the release of seven economic reports for the markets to digest, in addition to a speaking engagement by Fed Chairman Bernanke. Also worth noting is the fact that this will be an extremely busy week for corporate earnings, which usually translates into stock volatility.
The most important economic reports are scheduled for the middle part of the week, but we may see movement in mortgage rates each day. Intra-day revisions to mortgage rates on more than one day are also possible. Therefore, proceed with caution if closing in the near future.
Today has September’s Industrial Production data scheduled to be posted. It will be released mid-morning, giving us an indication of manufacturing strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.2% increase in output from August’s level, meaning that manufacturing activity rose slightly.
A larger than expected increase in production would be negative for bonds and mortgage rates as it would indicate economic strength. A decline in output would likely push mortgage rates lower tomorrow morning.
September’s Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released early Tuesday morning. This is one of the two very important inflation readings we get each month. This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% increase in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. A larger than expected increase could raise concerns in the bond market about future inflation and lead to higher mortgage rates Tuesday. However, weaker than expected readings should result in lower rates.
Wednesday has three reports scheduled that may influence mortgage rates. The first is the sister report of Tuesday’s PPI. This would be September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). It measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy and is one of the most important reports that the bond market gets each month. Analysts are expecting to see a rise of 0.3% in the overall index and an increase of 0.2% in the core data reading.
A larger than expected increase in the core reading could raise inflation concerns, pushing bond prices lower and mortgage rates higher. Inflation is the number one nemesis of the bond market because it erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments. When inflation is a threat, even down the road, bonds sell for discounted prices that push their yields higher. And since mortgage rates tend to follow bond yields, this leads to higher rates for mortgage borrowers.
September’s Housing Starts is Wednesday’s second release, also coming at 8:30 AM ET. This report will probably not have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage rates. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking construction starts of new homes, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial and mortgage markets. It is expected to show an increase in new home starts between August and September. I believe we need to see a significant surprise in this data for it to influence mortgage rates.
The final report scheduled for release Wednesday will come during afternoon trading when the Federal Reserve posts its’ Beige Book at 2:00 PM ET. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region and is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve when determining monetary policy at their FOMC meetings. If it reveals stronger signs of economic growth from the last release, we could see mortgage rates revise higher Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday has the last two reports of the week with the release of September’s Existing Home Sales data and Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), both at 10:00 AM ET. This index attempts to measure future economic activity, particularly during the next three to six months. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.3% from August’s reading. This would indicate that economic activity is likely to increase moderately over the next couple of months. That would be relatively bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this report is considered to be only moderately important. Therefore, a small increase would not be of much concern to the bond and mortgage markets. Ideally, we would like to see a decline in the index.
The National Association of Realtors will release September’s Existing Home Sales data. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking home resales. I don’t see it having much of an influence on the bond market or mortgage rates, but a reading that varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts could lead to a slight change in mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a decline in sales from August to September, meaning the housing sector remained soft. That would be favorable news for the bond market since a weak housing sector makes a broader economic recovery less likely.
Overall, it appears that Tuesday or Wednesday are the likely candidates for the most important day of the week. In addition to the economic data Tuesday, Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak at a Boston Fed conference during early afternoon hours. This adds to the days’ value as his words always have the potential to cause volatility in the markets. Besides the economic reports, there are many companies posting earning reports during the week, including some big names that include Apple, Citigroup, IBM and Intel.
If the corporate earnings releases are generally weaker than forecasts, stocks may suffer, making bonds more appealing to investors. The end result would likely be an improvement in rates. The flip side though is stronger than expected earnings that drive stocks higher, pushing bond prices lower and mortgage rates upward. Accordingly, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.
The most important economic reports are scheduled for the middle part of the week, but we may see movement in mortgage rates each day. Intra-day revisions to mortgage rates on more than one day are also possible. Therefore, proceed with caution if closing in the near future.
Today has September’s Industrial Production data scheduled to be posted. It will be released mid-morning, giving us an indication of manufacturing strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.2% increase in output from August’s level, meaning that manufacturing activity rose slightly.
A larger than expected increase in production would be negative for bonds and mortgage rates as it would indicate economic strength. A decline in output would likely push mortgage rates lower tomorrow morning.
September’s Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released early Tuesday morning. This is one of the two very important inflation readings we get each month. This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% increase in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. A larger than expected increase could raise concerns in the bond market about future inflation and lead to higher mortgage rates Tuesday. However, weaker than expected readings should result in lower rates.
Wednesday has three reports scheduled that may influence mortgage rates. The first is the sister report of Tuesday’s PPI. This would be September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). It measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy and is one of the most important reports that the bond market gets each month. Analysts are expecting to see a rise of 0.3% in the overall index and an increase of 0.2% in the core data reading.
A larger than expected increase in the core reading could raise inflation concerns, pushing bond prices lower and mortgage rates higher. Inflation is the number one nemesis of the bond market because it erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments. When inflation is a threat, even down the road, bonds sell for discounted prices that push their yields higher. And since mortgage rates tend to follow bond yields, this leads to higher rates for mortgage borrowers.
September’s Housing Starts is Wednesday’s second release, also coming at 8:30 AM ET. This report will probably not have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage rates. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking construction starts of new homes, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial and mortgage markets. It is expected to show an increase in new home starts between August and September. I believe we need to see a significant surprise in this data for it to influence mortgage rates.
The final report scheduled for release Wednesday will come during afternoon trading when the Federal Reserve posts its’ Beige Book at 2:00 PM ET. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region and is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve when determining monetary policy at their FOMC meetings. If it reveals stronger signs of economic growth from the last release, we could see mortgage rates revise higher Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday has the last two reports of the week with the release of September’s Existing Home Sales data and Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), both at 10:00 AM ET. This index attempts to measure future economic activity, particularly during the next three to six months. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.3% from August’s reading. This would indicate that economic activity is likely to increase moderately over the next couple of months. That would be relatively bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this report is considered to be only moderately important. Therefore, a small increase would not be of much concern to the bond and mortgage markets. Ideally, we would like to see a decline in the index.
The National Association of Realtors will release September’s Existing Home Sales data. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking home resales. I don’t see it having much of an influence on the bond market or mortgage rates, but a reading that varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts could lead to a slight change in mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a decline in sales from August to September, meaning the housing sector remained soft. That would be favorable news for the bond market since a weak housing sector makes a broader economic recovery less likely.
Overall, it appears that Tuesday or Wednesday are the likely candidates for the most important day of the week. In addition to the economic data Tuesday, Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak at a Boston Fed conference during early afternoon hours. This adds to the days’ value as his words always have the potential to cause volatility in the markets. Besides the economic reports, there are many companies posting earning reports during the week, including some big names that include Apple, Citigroup, IBM and Intel.
If the corporate earnings releases are generally weaker than forecasts, stocks may suffer, making bonds more appealing to investors. The end result would likely be an improvement in rates. The flip side though is stronger than expected earnings that drive stocks higher, pushing bond prices lower and mortgage rates upward. Accordingly, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Should You Pay Off Your Mortgage?
Homeowners may dream of the day they can pay off the mortgage. Financial advisors across the country say they are hearing questions all the time about the wisdom of retiring the mortgage early.
The pros:
* The obvious reason to do it: Paying off the home loan could save tens of thousands of dollars in interest during the time you would make payments.
* The second reason is the peace of mind you have from owning your home free and clear.
* Most experts recommend owning your home free and clear before you retire.
* If you still have a higher interest mortgage, paying down your principle will make refinancing easier.
The cons:
* Some financial needs should come first: Max out your 401(k) contributions. Pay off credit cards. Create a 6-month emergency cash fund.
* Mortgages are cheap money. When you pay down your mortgage or pay more every month, you are probably hoping for those big dollar savings on interest. But remember these are future dollars and they will be worth less 20 years from now. Keep your higher value dollar today and pay the bank its lower value dollar in the future.
* If you plan to move to another city or trade up or down, it’s not wise to pay off the mortgage. You would tie up your money in a home you might not be able to sell very soon when you want to buy another one.
* The mortgage interest tax deduction doesn’t help everyone. If you are in a high tax bracket, it’s more valuable. If you are retiring or in a lower tax bracket, it’s not worth as much.
* Check to see if the investment you could make with the payoff money would earn more interest than what you are presently paying on your home loan. A 50/50 stock/bond portfolio has historically earned 8.2 percent in the long term, but might only make 6 percent now, according to Money magazine.
Their conclusion The Money experts say that if paying off the mortgage would give you great satisfaction and a sense of security, go ahead and do it.
The pros:
* The obvious reason to do it: Paying off the home loan could save tens of thousands of dollars in interest during the time you would make payments.
* The second reason is the peace of mind you have from owning your home free and clear.
* Most experts recommend owning your home free and clear before you retire.
* If you still have a higher interest mortgage, paying down your principle will make refinancing easier.
The cons:
* Some financial needs should come first: Max out your 401(k) contributions. Pay off credit cards. Create a 6-month emergency cash fund.
* Mortgages are cheap money. When you pay down your mortgage or pay more every month, you are probably hoping for those big dollar savings on interest. But remember these are future dollars and they will be worth less 20 years from now. Keep your higher value dollar today and pay the bank its lower value dollar in the future.
* If you plan to move to another city or trade up or down, it’s not wise to pay off the mortgage. You would tie up your money in a home you might not be able to sell very soon when you want to buy another one.
* The mortgage interest tax deduction doesn’t help everyone. If you are in a high tax bracket, it’s more valuable. If you are retiring or in a lower tax bracket, it’s not worth as much.
* Check to see if the investment you could make with the payoff money would earn more interest than what you are presently paying on your home loan. A 50/50 stock/bond portfolio has historically earned 8.2 percent in the long term, but might only make 6 percent now, according to Money magazine.
Their conclusion The Money experts say that if paying off the mortgage would give you great satisfaction and a sense of security, go ahead and do it.
Monday, May 2, 2011
This Week’s Market Commentary
There are only four relevant economic reports scheduled for release this week, but two of them are considered to be highly important to the financial and mortgage markets. Unlike many Mondays, the week kicks off with important data being posted today. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index for April late this morning.
This is one of the first important economic reports released each month and gives us an indication of manufacturer sentiment. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed trade executives felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. This points toward more manufacturing activity and could hurt bond prices, pushing mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting to see a reading of 59.7, which would be a decline from March’s level of sentiment. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates.
March’s Factory Orders data is Tuesday’s only relatively important data. It will be released at 10:00AM, giving us a measure of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders, except this report includes non-durable goods such as food and clothing. Generally, the market is more concerned with the durable goods orders like refrigerators and electronics than items such as cigarettes and toothpaste. This is why the Durable Goods report usually has more of an impact on the financial markets than the Factory Orders report does. Still, a noticeably smaller increase than the 1.9% that is expected could push mortgage rates slightly lower. But, a much larger increase in new orders could lead to slightly higher mortgage pricing Tuesday.
There are no relevant government reports or events scheduled for Wednesday, meaning non-economic factors such as stock prices will probably have the biggest influence on bond trading and mortgage rates that day. Generally speaking, a stock rally pulls funds from bonds, leading to bond selling and higher mortgage rates. However, stock selling makes bonds more appealing to investors. When the funds are shifted into bonds to escape the volatility in stocks, we often see mortgage rates move lower. If the major stock indexes remain calm Wednesday, mortgage rates should follow suit.
The Labor Department will release its 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data early Thursday morning. This information helps us measure employee productivity in the workplace. High levels of productivity help allow low-inflationary economic growth. If employee productivity is rapidly rising, the bond market should react favorably. However, a decrease could cause bond prices to drop and mortgage rates to rise Thursday morning. It is expected to show a 1.0% increase in productivity.
Friday brings us the release of the almighty monthly Employment report, giving us April’s employment statistics. This is where we may see a huge rally or major sell-off in the bond market and potentially large changes in mortgage rates. The ideal situation for the bond and mortgage markets would be an increase in the unemployment rate and a much smaller number of payrolls added to the economy during the month than was expected.
Just how much of an improvement or worsening in rates depends on how much variance there is between forecasts and actual readings. This could turn out to be a wonderful day in the mortgage market, but it also carries risks of seeing mortgage rates move higher if the Labor Department posts stronger than expected readings. Current forecasts are calling for the unemployment rate to remain at 8.8% and that approximately 183,000 jobs were added during the month.
Overall, I believe Friday will be the most important day of the week with the employment data being posted. It can easily erase the week’s accumulated gains or losses in mortgage rates if it shows any surprises. We may actually see a noticeable change in rates tomorrow also if the ISM index shows favorable or unfavorable results. The middle part of the week will likely be the calmest, but I still suggest proceeding cautiously if still floating an interest rate. This would be a good week to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked a rate yet.
Friday, April 1, 2011
FHA Loans Could Undergo Changes
With its extremely low down payment, the Federal Housing Agency (FHA) loan is the primary method for financing for homebuyers across the country. According to a recent Wall Street Journal article, the FHA loan will be undergoing some changes that could have a major effect on affordability.“About 56% of mortgages for a home purchase were FHA-insured in 2009, up from 6% in 2007,” reported the WSJ. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, up to 80% of those who received an FHA loan were first-time homebuyers.
Currently these loans can be for up to $729,750 in high-cost markets, but the Obama administration is recommending that these high limits expire in October. $625,500 would be the new high limit.
More changes to the FHA program are seen on the horizon. “On April 18, the annual mortgage-insurance premium on new FHA loans is set to rise by a quarter of a percentage point on 30- and 15-year mortgages,” states the article. In addition, some predict that the standard 3.5% down payment could soon rise to 5%.
What do you think about these expected changes to the program and the impact it might have on the market?
Life Without Freddie and Fannie?
What would happen if loan giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were shut down? A recent New York Times article explains that if the government eventually shuts down these companies, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage loan could be a thing of the past.Homeownership as we know it could change drastically, with the fixed-rate loans at risk for extra fees and high rate increases for those in urban and rural areas.
“Lenders could charge fees for popular features now taken for granted, like the ability to “lock in” an interest rate weeks or months before taking out a loan,” according to the article.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac carry 90% of new mortgage loans post-recession as many lenders can’t afford to make loans that aren’t government insured. The 30-year loan has been the popular option since it was introduced in 1954 by an act of Congress, and most have been issued only with government support.
Read more about the possible outcome of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac being shut down and what would mean for mortgage rates here.
Treasury Invites Taxpayers to Get Refunds by Debit Card
The U.S. Treasury wants to quit writing paper checks. At the same time, it wants to give taxpayers more choices.An estimated nine million households, about one in every 12, don’t have bank accounts. By activating the debit card for a tax refund, they wouldn’t have to pay a check-cashing fee, and the government would save the cost of producing a check.
Each tax refund check costs the government about $1, including the cost of processing roughly 600,000 claims each year for missing checks. Payments by direct deposit cost the government about 10 cents.
The pilot program will provide consumers with a debit card that can be used, not just for receiving refunds, but also for shopping with many features of a checking account.
Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Neal Wolin, quoted by Bankrate.com, says the debit card “can be used for everyday financial transactions, such as receiving wages by direct deposit, withdrawing cash, making purchases, paying bills and building savings safely, giving users more control over their financial futures.”
Half of the 600,000 offers from the Treasury test program will carry a monthly fee of $4.50. The rest will be free. The different approaches will allow Treasury to determine which is more likely to lead consumers to sign up for the card.
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